Last night we had the first day of the NBA Playoffs, officially. While Nuggets-Wolves tipped at 2 AM Japan time, I woke up early enough to catch the second half of Knicks-Hawks and the entirety of Lakers-Rockets. I’ve been plugging away at this post for quite a while, and it’s become an ugly behemoth that I just want to birth so I can move on with my life. Is this even a food blog anymore? I’ve got nearly 10,000 words about the NBA here. My credentials? Despite not playing organized basketball after seventh grade (one disastrous season of intramural in college excluded), I do have access to NBA League Pass, the Bill Simmons Podcast, and a lot of free time. I’m also strongly opinionated in general. So let’s pretend I get to vote on the awards before I preview and pick the winners of our first-round playoff series.
A quick note: there are a lot of numbers in this post, often with slashes between them. What do they mean? The first ilk is simply the average amount of points, rebounds, and assists (in that order) that a player records in a game. The second group of numbers are shooting splits. These refer to a player’s general shooting percentage, their three-point percentage, and their free-throw percentage. What are good percentages? The exclusive club of elite marksmen is the 50/40/90 club, that is to say 50% field goals, 40% threes, and 90% free throws.
Awards
A few years ago, the NBA instituted a 65-game minimum for award eligibility, largely as an anti-tanking and load-management measure. While something should probably be done about tanking, the unintended consequence of this rule is that many worthy players will not be rewarded because they failed to reach this mark due to injuries. Adam Silver doesn’t think this is a problem. Guys like Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, and Kawhi Leonard deserve recognition and might not play enough games, through no fault of their own. In fact, several players ended up filing appeals with the league for an exemption to the 65 game rule – Cunningham and Luka Doncic were approved, while Anthony Edwards was denied. Does anybody like that these stars had to take legal action to ensure their recognition – besides their attorneys? Because I’m just some kid with a blog, I can pretend this rule doesn’t exist and cast my fictional awards accordingly.
As Thinking Basketball outlines here, the 65-game rule doesn’t address the actual issue. The problem, the reason why players aren’t playing as many games as they used to, is because the game is faster and more strenuous than its ever been. Load management is a reaction to this – teams are petrified of losing their stars, and as such exercise an abundance of caution. The problem is not that stars are healthy and don’t want to play. A real solution would look like shortening the season, but that would mess with the record books and the owners’ pocket books when all of the sudden we’re not playing 82 games a year (although the NFL has no problem expanding to 18 games). A more invasive solution would be trying to change the style of basketball played less physically demanding. Anyway, let’s get to it.
Most Valuable Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
As a Jokic stan through and through who thought that he deserved MVP last year (Jokic arguably had his best season yet this year), I cannot dismiss SGA’s brilliance this year. You know about the streak of 20-point performances. The field goal percentage on the volume is absurd. The only guys in his neighborhood for FG% are bigs who don’t handle the ball or shoot from outside the paint (except for Jokic). The other ball-dominant stars who take among the most shots in the league can’t sniff his efficiency. SGA is shooting .553 on 19.4 FG attempts per game, the only other players to shoot better than 50% on 17+ attempts per game are Kawhi (.505 on 19.4 attempts per game), KD (.520 on 17.6), and Jokic (.569 on 17.5). His performance in their win against Denver on March 9 felt like an inflection point, as he tied Wilt Chamberlain’s record for most consecutive 20-point games (126) and then made every clutch shot down the stretch including the dagger three. He’s now up to 140 straight games with 20+ points.
Yes, he makes a lot of his living at the line, but if it’s a close game late, there isn’t anyone else in the league you’d like to face less. It feels like he can get to his spot whenever he wants and he never makes a mistake. The Kia NBA Clutch Player of the Year Award (Jerry West Trophy) is stupid and unnecessary, but SGA should win it as well. His team has dominated all year – except for a brief slump that was largely due to injuries – despite co-star Jalen Williams missing most of the year, and in all probability will repeat as champions in June. It’s a crying shame that we wasted the “Maple Jordan” moniker on former #1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins (anytime anyone is referred to as a former #1 overall or first round pick, just know that they have failed to meet expectations by a significant margin – Deandre Ayton, I’m looking at you) because SGA’s silky smooth game and midrange inevitability feels like the best Jordan homage since Kobe. And if he collects another Finals MVP to boot, that would give him 4 consecutive All-NBA First Team selections, three consecutive years as either the MVP or runner-up, and two consecutive years of taking home regular season and Finals MVP. That’s rarefied air indeed, whether you like it or not.
Runners-Up:
#2: Nikola Jokic
#3: Victor Wembanyama
#4: Luka Doncic
#5: Cade Cunningham
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
Barring injuries (which is saying something for someone this tall and slim), this is Wemby’s award to lose for the next decade at least. Who would have thought having an eight foot wingspan makes you the best rim protector we’ve seen this century? This YouTube video does a great job of capturing how Wembanayama is even more impressive than the statistics indicate – any game you turn on, guys will do a full 180 and dribble away from the hoop when he’s lurking, which doesn’t appear in the box score.
It doesn’t even matter if he’s out of position, gambles for a steal, or falls for a pump fake. His impossibly long strides ensure that he is never out of the play. A defender might think they have him beat, and he will spawn out of nowhere to tattoo their pathetic layup off the backboard. The Spurs as a team can afford to make defensive mistakes, because Wemby is a Gumby-shaped eight foot tall eraser who can clean up any errors. His highlight reel inspires chuckles of disbelief. Though individual defensive metrics are hard to calculate, he leads the league in most of those, including Win Shares, Defensive Rating, blocks, and more. The Spurs with him on the floor have the best team defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions), and without him they are 23rd. Teams have to develop an offensive gameplan to account for him. By the way, he’s still only 22. The sky is really the limit for the French demigod. Make sure you clear your calendar for 2028 Olympic hoops, because I think Wembanyama will be looking to get his lick back for Team France.
Rookie of the Year: Kon Knueppel
Cooper Flagg was the strong favorite for most of the year, widely regarded as the best #1 overall pick since Wembanyama, and the best American since Zion. He’s been as advertised, he looks polished for how young he is, he’s craft, a good ballhandler for his size, and his bag is deep. Did you know that he was born in December 2006, and reclassified so he could go to college as a 17-year old, and was still the best prospect in his class? Absurd. He became the youngest player to ever drop 50. Plus he’s essentially served as his team’s point guard for much of the year, which is a lot of responsibility for such a young player/ But he’s missed some games due to injury/tanking. In his absence, his college teammate Kon Knueppel snatched the distinction of being top rookie. The sharp-shooting Knueppel shot .425 on nearly 8 attempts per game, and led the entire league in threes made. The way he darts around the court to spring an open look reminds me of Klay Thompson. He’s been a key part of the Charlotte Hornets remarkable turnaround from third-worst in the league last year to the best net rating in the league since the new year. Though the Hornets missed their chance to be a pesky first-round opponent for one of the top dogs in the East, the future is bright for the first time in a long time in Charlotte.
Flagg and Knueppel had an awesome duel in January, and including former teammate Khaman Maluach (who has spent most of the season in the G-League), this Duke team yielded three top ten draft picks. Somehow, that loaded squad choked in the Final Four to Houston, much to my delight. This two white boys both look like future All-NBA level guys, but Kon has been better and more consistent this year – though to be fair, he’s also asked to do less than Flagg. I think we’ll see them both on the 2028 Olympic squad, and without their emergence, Nick Wright wouldn’t have proposed his semi-tongue-in-cheek All-Star Game fix.
All-NBA
Okay, now here are my award teams. Remember, I’m throwing out the 65 game rule.
First Team:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G – OKC)
- Cade Cunningham (G – DET)
- Luka Doncic (G – LAL)
- Victor Wembanyama (C – SAS)
- Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)
Second Team
- Jalen Brunson (G – NYK)
- Donovan Mitchell (G – CLE)
- Jaylen Brown (F – BOS)
- Kawhi Leonard (F – LAC)
- Kevin Durant (F – HOU)
Third Team
- Jamal Murray (G – DEN)
- Jalen Johnson (F – ATL)
- Deni Avdija (F – POR)
- Anthony Edwards (G – MIN)
- Jalen Duren (C – DET)
Toughest Omissions (AKA Honorary Fourth Team)
- Tyrese Maxey (G – PHI)
- LaMelo Ball (G – CHA)
- Devin Booker (G – PHX)
- Scottie Barnes (F – TOR)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (C – NYK)
All-Defense
First Team
- Derrick White (G – BOS)
- Ausar Thompson (G – DET)
- Scottie Barnes (F – TOR)
- Chet Holmgren (C – OKC)
- Victor Wembanyama (C – SAS)
Second Team
- Cason Wallace (G – OKC)
- Stephon Castle (G – SAS)
- Draymond Green (F – GSW)
- Bam Adebayo (C – MIA)
- Rudy Gobert (C – MIN)
All-Underrated Team
This is not a full team, just three guys who I think have had underrated seasons.
Jamal Murray (G – DEN)
Murray was named to his first All-Star team this season, but he’s always in the vicinity of being a top 10 guard. This year, his shooting splits have improved despite increased volume (partially a product of Jokic missing most of January – Murray averaged 28 and 8 on 50/40/87 splits in his abscence), and his assists are up as well. Granted, he has the luxury of playing with Jokic, the best player in the world who makes all his teammates better and their jobs easier. But Murray is a stone-cold killer in his own right, who has been a playoff riser his entire career. He’s an All-NBA candidate this season as well, and the list of guard you would take over him is pretty short (SGA, Luka, Cade, Mitchell, Curry, Brunson, Maxey, Booker… I think that’s the list.
Kawhi Leonard (F – LAC)
You might be surprised to see the Klaw’s name on this list. The drama unfolding within the Clippers organization this year – chiefly the Aspiration no-show job thing, as reported by Pablo Torre (by the way, we’re still waiting to see if the Clippers, governor Steve Balmer, or Leonard himself will face any repercussions for this – has overshadowed arguably Leonard’s best season in a Clipper uniform. The Clippers started off the season a dismal 6-21. Though they had climbed to the vicinity of .500, they jettisoned James Harden and Ivica Zubac – two of their three best players – at the trade deadline in a cost-saving maneuver. Undeterred, Kawhi backpacked a team whose second best player is now… John Collins? The Clippers made the play-in, and Kawhi averaged a career-high 28 points per game, to go along with a nearly-league-leading 1.9 steals per game. This is remarkable considering he’s 34 years old, has had major lower-body injuries throughout his career, and is being asked to do more than ever. He played exactly 65 games, and will make an All-NBA team – when most of us thought the twilight of his career was here. Though he got clamped by Draymond Green in the play-in, Kawhi still had an amazing season.
Donovan Clingan (C-POR)
When Portland took Clingan in the bizarre 2024 draft, which was largely understood to be the worst draft in recent memory, I was pleased, but not overjoyed. I didn’t expect him to fall to #7, but other teams like Atlanta and Charlotte showed us that anyone who’s taller than 6′ 5″ and possesses a French passport is a potential lottery pick. Thank God for that. The Trail Blazers’ decision to draft center Yang Hansen #16 overall in this most recent draft ranges from strange to downright fishy, but stands out especially because of Clingan’s emergence. In just his second year, and his first as the everyday starter, he has dominated. He led the league offensive rebounding, ranked in the top five in most other rebounding categories, and is also top five in blocks. He also, to the surprise of everyone, added a three-point shot to his arsenal, shooting at a 33% clip on three attempts per game. He’s not a stretch five in the conventional sense, as his 7′ 3″ 280 lb. frame is what gives him his status as a paint beast, but the respectable three-ball forces opponents to respect him and close out on defense. He’s only 22, and if he can stay healthy I think his ceiling is quite high, someone who will perennially be a walking double-double, among the league’s best rebounders and rim-protectors, an All-Defense guy who could flirt with fringe All-Stardom.
All-Whiners Team
This is a team of the guys who do the most complaining to the referees.
- Luka Doncic (G – LAL)
- Deni Avdija (F – POR)
- LeBron James (F – LAL)
- Alpren Sengun (C – HOU)
- Nikola Jokic (C – DEN)
- Sixth Man: Draymond Green (F – GSW)
You’ll notice that there’s a reoccuring theme, and it’s the continent of Europe (what continent Israel and Turkey are on is a matter of debate, but they get lumped in with Europe in a basketball context – after all, they both have teams in the EuroLeague). For a long time, European players in the NBA were considered “soft” or purely jump shooters. Now the NBA is dominated by players from Europe. But it feels like they have brought with them soccer’s flopping and whining. Although LeBron was complaining to the refs when the rest of these guys were still in diapers.
Though this was two years ago, and LeBron was fouled by Jayson Tatum on this play, it’s too funny to not include. Below, Draymond commits a transition take foul just so he can complain to the officials.
But guys don’t just complain to the refs because it’s in their nature. Though that might be part of it, complaining to the officials usually gets you a better whistle. Case in point: down the stretch of the Blazers’ choke in Denver at the end of the regular season, Jokic grabbed Robert Williams’ arm and drew a foul that the refs later deemed should have been an offensive foul on Jokic, instead. Portland still probably would have blew the game, but in that situation, Jokic got the benefit of the doubt.
Most Improved Player: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
This is a hotly contested award, and one of much scrutiny and debate. What does it mean to be most improved? Should this award be for former lottery picks who took a leap that was largely expected? Guys who went from barely playing to key role players? Let’s take a look at the past five MIPs and see if we can establish some sort of pattern.
2020-21: Julius Randle, 7th overall pick in 2014, received 98 of 100 first-place votes after going from 20/10/3 on 46/27/73 shooting splits to 24/10/6 on 46/41/81. So in his 7th season, he boosted his assist numbers and added a real three-point shot, and his team went from 21-45 to 41-31 (remember this was the Covid/bubble year). He finished 8th in MVP voting, was All-NBA 2nd Team, and an All-Star.
2021-22: Ja Morant, 2nd overall pick in 2019, 38 first-place votes, went from 19/4/7 on 45/30/72 shooting splits to 27/6/7 on 49/34/76. In his 3rd season, his scoring and playmaking lept, on decent efficiency, and his team went from 38-34 to 56-26. He finished 7th in MVP voting, was All-NBA 2nd Team, and an All-Star.
2022-23: Lauri Markkanen, 7th overall pick in 2017, 69 first place votes, went from 14/6/1 on 45/36/87 to 26/9/2 on 49/40/88. He went from Cleveland (role player on 44-38 team) to Utah (#1 option on 37-45). So in contrast to Randle and Morant, who improved along with their team, Markkanen, in his 6th season, went to a new team to have a much bigger role. He also made the All-Star team.
2023-24: Tyrese Maxey, 21st overall pick in 2020 (qualifier: weird Covid draft), 51 first place votes, went from 20/3/4 on 48/43/85 to 26/4/6 on 45/37/89. After playing behind Joel Embiid and James Harden, the departure of Harden and Embiid’s injuries opened the door for a bigger role for Maxey in his 4th season, and his team went from 54-28 in Embiid’s MVP season to 47-35. So the reigning MVP only played 39 games, and Harden left a 21-point 11-assist hole in the roster, and Philly only lost seven more games thanks to Maxey. Maxey was also an All-Star.
2024-25: Dyson Daniels, 8th overall pick in 2022, 44 first place votes, went from 6/4/3 on 45/31/64 to 14/6/4 on 50/34/59. Daniels came off the bench for the most part the prior year, but in his third season was elevated to the starting lineup on a new team, and most importantly, led the league in steals with 3 per game. Unlike the other MIP winners, he was not the #1 scoring option on his team. But he did finish 2nd in DPOY voting and was All-Defense 1st Team.
So what can we learn from this? 4/5 of these guys were lottery picks (Maxey is the exception). 4/5 of them were the primary scoring option on their teams (Daniels is the exception). 4/5 of them either improved along with their team, or elevated their new teams (Maxey is the exception). 4/5 were All-Stars, and the exception was the runner-up Defensive Player of the Year. With that criteria, let’s look at this year’s race.
Jalen Duren (DET, 13th overall pick in 2022) added 7 points to his per-game averages from last year, made the All-Star team, and is the second-best player on the top team in the East. He’s a physical player, tenacious rebounder, and a throwback to the Pistons teams of 20 years ago. If we were doing a draft of “players I wouldn’t want to meet in a darkened alley,” Duren would be near the top. He was a key ingredient in the massive Pistons-Hornets brawl that would be delicious to revisit in the playoffs if the Hornets can get the 8 seed. He also made the All-Star team.
Jalen Johnson (ATL, 20th overall pick in 2021) has become the Hawks’ #1 option with the departure of Trae Young. He’s added 4 points and 3 assists to his per-game averages to become a triple-double machine and an All-Star. The Hawks after being a .500 team for the entire decade, are on a crazy hot streak, and could make some noise as a five seed in the playoffs.
Deni Avdija (POR, 9th overall pick in 2020) has jumped from 17/4/4 on 47/36/78 to 24/7/7 on 46/33/80. The Blazers, after tanking this year, are competing this year, and took down Phoenix in a thrilling Play-In game. Avdija played well down the stretch of last year, but many determined this to be a product of “Mickey Mouse March.” With Anfernee Simons out the door, and Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson missing swathes of games, Avdija assumed ball-handling duties and vaulted into an offensive assault few foresaw. He has the quickest first step of any white guy in the league, and can collapse the defense off the dribble in a second. From there, he can finish through contact at the rim or spray out to a shooter beyond the arc. That’s part of the reason why the Blazers have attempted the 4th-most threes in the league, and if they were better than league-worst at making them, Avdija’s assist numbers would be even higher. He led the league in drives, and was top five in free throws attempted. People complaining about his foul baiting, but just like SGA, it’s a “hate the player, not the game” situation. I could probably do a whole post on Avdija, his attributes and downsides, let alone his off-the-court stuff.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ATL, 17th overall in 2019) has made a late push in this race. Like Johnson, he has seen a surge in production in the wake of Trae Young, and his scoring has jumped from just 9.4 PPG last year to more than 20 this year. During the Hawks’ recent hot streak (13-2 in their last 15), he’s put up 24 PPG on 54/48/93 splits. Yes, he is the cousin of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (and they have another cousin, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, who plays for Troy – this family absolutely LOVES a hyphen). Back in the day, he was a part of the CJ McCollum package that New Orleans traded to Portland, and we immediately flipped him to Utah for… Joe Ingles (who never played a game for us) and a second round pick. Thanks a lot, Joe Cronin, If our new owner (sorry, governor) decides to clean house, I will not cry for you. But NAW has spent the better part of his career being included in various large-scale trades, and then was traded this off-season by Minnesota for cash and a second round pick. Minnesota simply chose to pay Naz Reid and Julius Randle instead, but NAW is thriving in Atlanta. On the right night, he looks a lot like his cousin, with a smooth handle and the ability to score at all three levels. Unlike these other guys, he was not named an All-Star.
This is such a nebulous category that everyone’s race looks a little different. While I think recognizing someone who went from total obscurity to a role player (like Ryan Rollins or Neemias Queta) would be more in the spirit of the award, a look at the past winners tells us that’s not who wins this thing. Jamal Murray, who was selected to his first All-Star team in his 9 year career this season, is certainly in the mix. You could make a Donovon Clingan argument. It’s increasingly looking like a two horse race between Duren and Alexander-Walker. Ultimately I’m going to go with Nickeil Alexander-Walker because of his contributions to both offense and defense, despite the fact that he didn’t make the All-Star team.
Sixth Man of the Year: Keldon Johnson
Johnson is such an integral part of the Spurs’ rotation that I didn’t even realize he hadn’t started a single game all season. He’s a good offensive rebounder at his size (1.6 per game at 6′ 6″). I don’t have a lot of thoughts, besides that Johnson is part of San Antonio’s vicious pack of bulldogs that surrounds Wembanyama (the two of them shaved each other’s heads this season – isn’t that cute).
I’d also just like to take a moment to be a homer and appreciate what Portland’s Robert Williams III has brought to the table this year. While I expected us to flip him to a contender when we traded for him, and felt like his value on the trade market massively depreciated after he played just 26 games in his first two season as a Trail Blazer, this year he has been rock-solid. This year he’s stayed healthy, and played the most games in his injury-riddled career since his 2022 campaign that earned him Second Team All-Defense. 7 and 7 with 1.5 blocks at 17 minutes per game (he’s a per-36 demon). He’s an elite lob finisher and rim protector, and his defensive advanced analytics remain off the charts.
Coach of the Year (Best and Worst): Joe Mazzulla (BOS) and Jamahl Mosley (ORL)
Another difficult category to evaluate. Despite my steady diet of Thinking Basketball and Awful Coaching on YouTube, I’m no X’s and O’s expert. The nebulous criteria of “vibes” plays a role here. Last year’s winner, Cleveland’s Kenny Atkinson, boosted his team’s win total by 16 in his first year. The year prior, Mark Daigneault had led OKC to 17 more wins than the year before. This year, the big turn arounds are in San Antonio and Detroit with Mitch Johnson (who inherited the reigns from the legendary Gregg Popovich) and JB Bickerstaff.
I think two other coaches deserve consideration. When the Boston Celtics lost perennial fringe MVP contender Jayson Tatum to an Achilles tear in the playoffs, and subsequently jettisoned two key parts of the 2024 championship team in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, many pundits thought the Celtics would be taking a gap year. After all, the Indiana Pacers also lost their star player to an Achilles tear in the playoffs (in arguably the cruelest twist of fate in sports history, in Game 7 of the Finals), and this year they have been literally the worst team in the league. But presumably they’ll be back next year with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton and a lottery pick to boot. The Celtics, led by Joe Mazzulla, also known as Psycho Joe or Second-Row Joe, who is just a content machine (he famously claimed that he watches The Town (2010) a whopping four times a week), have instead been around the top of the Eastern Conference all year, and now that Tatum is back and looking sharp, are the favorites to win the conference. Managing this roster through the turnover, coaxing frontcourt production out of castoffs from other teams (Neemias Queta and Luka Garza), reworking the offensive scheme and getting an MVP-type season from Jaylen Brown, and then reintegrating Jayson Tatum at the 11th hour is an immense feat. And that’s not just the Bill Simmons talking.
While this is a total homer pick, I think Portland’s Tiago Splitter deserves some credit as well. Don’t forget, Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups was ARRESTED BY THE FBI on the eve of the season’s start. With a roster full of impressionable young guys that won just 36 games last year, this season could have easily gone sideways. Instead, Splitter has assumed control of a team that has rarely seen all of their best players healthy at the same time, and steered them to a .500 record and a playoff appearance, exceeding the expectations of the national media even before the Billups drama could have hijacked the season. Yes, Portland leads the league in turnovers by a wide margin, and the team has been erratic all season (handing OKC their first loss of the season and beating San Antonio but also losing to the dregs of the league in Washington and New Orleans), but Splitter has brought a sense of calm and clarity to the locker room. There’s still room for improvement with his rotations, in-game adjustments and ATOs (after time out designed plays).
On the flip side, the hottest seats in the league are in Houston (for reasons discussed in length below) and Orlando, a team that has yet to take the leap many have been expecting for a few years and just gave up a league record 31 unanswered point in Toronto a few weeks ago. The last game of the season saw an Orlando team be favored by 12 points against Boston’s reserves, and lose outright.
The Magic are just a thoroughly mediocre team despite making a big splash for Desmond Bane this off-season. Paolo Banchero has been disappointing for the high standards that being the #1 overall pick brings. For someone as big as he is (6′ 10″ 250 lbs), he shoots poorly at the rim, and would rather take midrange shots – unfortunately he’s not good at those either, earning him the devastating nickname “PB no J.” In their first play-in game in Philadelphia, Banchero shot 7/22 and turned the ball over six times. I actually don’t have any insight into Jamahl Mosley’s coaching chops (why does he spell his name like that), but with a solid roster that hasn’t produced results, it feels like there’s gonna be a fall guy in Orlando, and it might be him.
Referee of the Year: Bill Kennedy
I just made this award up to shout out League Pass legend Bill Kennedy, who is the only referee to take advantage of the comedic opportunity that comes with speaking directly into a camera and microphone. His earnest, deadpan delivery never fails to put a smile on my face.
I don’t actually have any criteria to evaluate whether or not Kennedy is a particularly good ref, but he entertains me. While the infamous Scott Foster also entertains me, Kennedy is a positive and benevolent force.
Best Games of the Year:
Obviously, I didn’t watch all 1,230 games of the regular season. But I think I caught most of the important ones. I can’t just pick one, and don’t ask me to rank them, so instead I’ll give you a starting five of the best games of the year. There can be a lot of negative noise about the NBA regular season, but these games illustrate how good they can be. And yes, all but one include the Nuggets.
- DEN 142 – 138 MIN (OT) (12/25): Insane Jokic vs. Edwards duel on Christmas
- OKC 129 – 126 DEN (3/9): SGA ties Wilt’s record and hits the dagger, while Jokic had a mere 32/14/13
- DEN 136 – 134 SAS (OT) (4/4): Jokic outduels Wemby
- GSW 137 – 131 DEN (OT): Curry’s 42 including two 3s in the final 90 seconds of regulation overcame Aaron Gordon’s career-high 50, spurred by an insane magnet ball performance of 10-11 from three
- OKC 125 – 124 HOU (2OT): Thrilling opener that saw the Rocket’s crazy tall lineup fall to OKC in a perfect start to the season
- Honorable Mention: LAL 127 – 125 DEN (OT): Austin Reaves hits an insane shot to force OT off an intentionally missed free throw, which is downright impossible
Biggest Waste of Our Time: The Giannis Saga
This writing has been on the wall for so long that the paint is starting to chip. Milwaukee has won just a single playoff series since their 2020-21 championship. They’re on their third coach since then, and the roster has turned over a lot – and not for the better. The trade for Damian Lillard – which was a panic move in the first place – was their last card to play, and it didn’t work. At the trade deadline, Giannis passively aggressively indicated that he wanted out, but the Bucks didn’t move him. This was probably because they didn’t get an offer they liked enough and hope to get stronger ones this summer – although Giannis is still a top five player in the league when healthy, he’s now 31 and the history of guys with his degree of usage and accompanying lower-body injuries doesn’t bode well. Maybe that plays a role in the market not being as hot for him as one might think. But it didn’t help that he seemed to use the spotlight to launch his partnership with a prediction market. The “now they tell us” story does not paint Giannis in a flattering light. Giannis brought a championship to Milwaukee and is already the greatest Buck of all time. No one would begrudge him for asking out – the Bucks without Giannis are probably the worst team in the league. Milwaukee mortgaged their future to try and extend their championship window. That’s fine, but what annoys people is how Giannis tries to have it both ways. He has asked for the Bucks to trade him every way except for explicitly saying so.
Trade of the Year: Coby White to Charlotte
This is in terms of what trade actually improved a team the most, so even though the Wizards trading for Anthony Davis and Trae Young was intriguing, those guys played a total of five games in a Washington uniform. So that’s out. The Hornets gave up a bunch of second round picks to snag White, who was a spark plug off the bench and forced OT in their crazy play-in win over Miami.
All in all, this was a strange, wonderful season. We had a vigorous MVP race, a decent trade deadline, an All-Star game where the players actually played hard, several scandals that gave us weeks’ worth of headlines, and there are still some deep-seeded problems that need to be addressed. Chauncey Billups got arrested by the FBI, Bam scored 83. There’s a zero chance these playoffs will be normal, so let’s get into it.
Playoff Preview
The Western Conference
(#1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (#8) Phoenix Suns
What can I say about the Oklahoma City Thunder that hasn’t already been said about Nazi Germany’s blitzkrieg. It’s brutal, ruthlessly efficient, but not fun to watch. I was excited to watch the recent Lakers @ Thunder game – two of the top teams in the West with everybody healthy. And then the score was 82-51 at halftime, after OKC shot 60% from the floor, 47% from three, outrebounded the Lakers by a margin of 10, and forced 11 turnovers. One of the ass-beatings of the year. The Thunder have the league’s best defense. They also might have the league’s best offense. They have the best player in the world in SGA. They have two other All-Stars in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. They have the All-Defense, DPOY candidate, and dirtiest player in the league contender in Lu Dort. They also have Alex Caruso, who might be out of his All-Defense prime but still shut down Nikola Jokic in last year’s Game 7 despite being eight inches shorter. They have an inexhaustible bench of homegrown guys could start on bad teams as microwave scorers, dead-eyed three point shooters, or scrappy defenders. They have maybe the league’s preeminent model of a double-big lineup (with Sengun-Adams out of commission) with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. They can also go small-ball with Jaylin Williams (the other one) at center.
At the trade deadline they reached into their bottomless Scrooge McDuck vault of draft picks to pry away Jared McCain, a 22 year-old who shoots 40% from three who somehow was languishing on Philadelphia’s G-League squad, in a move that felt like when your buddy fleeces a less knowledgeable player in fantasy football, except that less knowledgeable player is former Executive of the Year Daryl Morey. The Thunder feel inevitable, like a runaway freight train. They’re good enough to have become widely hated (also because they seemingly get away with assaulting the other team while simultaneously getting whistles when a defender breathes on SGA). With their youth, depth, dominance, and treasure trove of future draft picks, this could very well be the NBA’s next dynasty. But since we seem to be in a post-dynasty era with how punative the salary cap in this current iteration of the CBA (collective bargaining agreement) – Holmgren and Williams will both be eligible for extensions in the neighborhood of 40+ million per year – it seems unlikely that OKC will be able to keep this core together in perpetuity.
This Suns team is interesting. They got rid of Durant, so this was supposed to be a gap year. But instead, a bunch of guys stepped up to have career years offensively, including Dillon Brooks and Colin Gillespie. But they truly blew the play-in game to Portland, and if Jalen Green is the one to take the most shots for this team instead of Devin Booker, that’s not a good sign. OKC will go through them like a hot knife through butter.
Verdict: OKC in four – a clean sweep
(#2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (#7) Portland Trail Blazers
Usually, teams have to take their lumps in the playoffs for a few years before they make a deep run. Of the teams who went from missing the playoffs one year to making the Finals the next, most of them had previous playoff experience. The recent exception to this rule is the 2020-21 Phoenix Suns, who broke a decade-long playoff drought with a run to the Finals. The big change for the Suns that year? The addition of veteran point god Chris Paul, who finished 5th in MVP voting (incredible for a player his size at 35 years old), who added wisdom and leadership to the locker room and boosted the play of his younger, inexperienced teammates. They exceeded their projected win total by 13.
This year’s Spurs could be next. This franchise has been a model of consistency in the NBA for more than half a century, only missing the playoffs five times from 1967-68 (when they were the ABA’s Dallas Chaparrals) to 2018-19. This year, they exceeded their projected win total by 17. We all knew the Victor Wembaynama leap was coming, we just didn’t expect it to be so soon or so rapid. One of the most remarkable things about Wemby’s season is that he’s having this massive impact on less than 30 minutes per game. Outside of Wemby, the Spurs might have the best guards in the league, with All-Star De’Aaron Fox, last year’s Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, and second overall pick Dylan Harper, who looks like a future star and has the luxury of coming off the bench for this squad. This team goes 9 deep, versatile, and any team that faces them will have to deal with the Wemby problem. On the flip side, the only Spur with real playoff experience is sixth man Harrison Barnes, who was a key role player with Golden State from 2012-16. That could be a problem, especially against experienced teams like Oklahoma City and Denver. The Spurs went 4-1 against OKC in the regular season, but 1-4 against Denver.
And facing them is my beloved Portland Trail Blazers. I didn’t think they would be here. I thought they would make a leap. I thought their win total of 35 games was too low. I thought Avdija could be an All-Star – as I correctly predicted in my bio that I submitted for my prefecture’s ALT blog. They had a great start to the season led by their defense, beating Denver and OKC, and blowing out the Warriors. I’ll say it again, because somehow people have forgotten that our head coach at the beginning of the season, Chauncey Billups, was ARRESTED BY THE FBI after one game. But then everyone got hurt and things went sideways. The low point of the season was probably when we got blown out in New Orleans by the lowly Pelicans 143-120, to drop to 9-16. Some of the names that were playing real minutes for us: Kris Murray (a 3&D wing who’s all D, no 3 (shooting 28% from behind the arc), Rayan Rupert (young raw French wing that we waived at the end of the season – he proceeded to drop a 30 point triple double for Memphis in a meaningless game where both teams were trying to lose), Caleb Love (undrafted college star, streaky shooter who managed to score 20+ 8 times between November and February), and Duop Reath (fan favorite undersized center who was a 26 year-old rookie).
Eventually we got healthier, and closed the season by beating up on a bunch of bad teams. I still thought the offense was too inconsistent to make it out of the play-in. Against Phoenix we built a large lead, blew it, and staged a dramatic comeback in the final minutes to secure the #7 seed and our first postseason appearance since 2021. Deni Avdija had a brilliant 41 points, 7 rebounds, and 12 assists on 15/22 shooting in a repute of everyone who said he was a free throw merchant and that his game wouldn’t translate to the playoffs. He doesn’t have a “bag” in the conventional sense, as he’s not a good jump shooter. But he might be the best driver in the league, is seemingly able to get to the rim whenever he wants, and his excellent at finishing through and around contact. Yes, the Spurs are a juggernaut, but this season was a resounding success for my Blazers. Our volatile three-point shooting (we take a lot but miss most of them), combined with lockdown defense and a Deni triple double, could snag us a game. Clingan banging with Wemby in the paint will be a sight to see.
Verdict: Spurs in 5
(#3) Denver Nuggets vs. (#6) Minnesota Timberwolves
Last year, the Nuggets improbably fired their head coach and general manager going into the postseason. Their first-round victory against the Clippers had some memorable moments (I watched this game on a real fuzzy TV from my beloved Hot N’ Juicy crawfish), and then they gave the eventual champion Thunder all they could handle, and arguably could have taken the series if Aaron Gordon didn’t get hurt. Denver has had the best offense in the league all season, and Jokic will finish with a strong MVP case – arguably his best season yet. Minnesota has made the conference finals each of the past two seasons, but they faded down the stretch of this season partially because Anthony Edwards missed some time. He looks good to go, however. On Christmas Day, these two teams gave us arguably the best game of the year. Jokic had 56/16/15, while Edwards had 44, including an impossible corner three to force overtime, which I witnessed on my phone on the airport shuttle.
These two teams faced off in the 2024 playoffs, and the series came down to Rudy Gobert hitting maybe the most improbable shot in NBA history – a turnaround buzzer-beating 13-footer – that felt like the dagger even though it only made it a four-point game with more than seven minutes left. I saw that shot on my phone in an Indian restaurant in Walla Walla, Washington. Denver and Minnesota are well-matched, feature two of the best in the game, and have history. It feels like Minnesota kind of sleepwalked through the season, and they’ll have to flip a switch in terms of intensity to match the Nuggets. Julius Randle will have to play well as the Nuggets will sell out defensively to stop Edwards. The Nuggets tend to play long series, but I don’t see any scenario in which the Wolves can win Game 7 in Denver.
Verdict: Nuggets in 7.
(#4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (#5) Houston Rockets
The Lakers have been a strange, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type team all year. The spirits and effort levels of this team have waxed and waned. As is typical with LeBron teams, the trade deadline brought uncertainty and suspicion. There were moments when Luka looked out of shape and lazy, LeBron looked frustrated, and Deandre Ayton looked like, well, his strange, doofy, passive self. The top-heaviness of the roster seemed like a glaring weakness. But in the month of March, they went on a heater. A 15-2 record powered by Luka’s best stretch as a Laker, where he averaged an absurd 38 points per game with 8 rebounds and 7 assists on 50/40/80 splits. His defensive effort and hustle was noticeable (3 stocks (steals + blocks) per game in March), although the bar is on the floor for anything he does without the ball in his hand. Reaves was his usual steady self, LeBron seemed to have accepted his role as an elite third option, and Ayton seemed more tuned in.
I think back to this Substack piece from the beginning of last year’s playoffs. Owen Phillips uses statistics to present the argument that while the NBA used to be a strong link sport (meaning having the best player was the key ingredient for success), the changes in offensive strategy and the burden that places on defenses to both flawless rotate and be able to defend one-on-one, it has now become a weak link sport. A playoff series is no longer determined by whose star is brighter, but rather by whose fifth man is less of a liability. If, for instance, one of your guards is small and a poor defender, the opposing team will hunt them mercilessly on defense (a limiting factor for Brunson and the Knicks). So although an offensive tandem of Luka, LeBron, and Reaves is elite offensively, it’s lacking defensively, and the outcome of a playoff series might come down to, say, Marcus Smart’s defense or Luke Kennard’s shooting. Then again, Luka could average 35 points and 10 assists and blow the other team away. Or at least, that was a possibility before he got hurt. Now everything hinges on Luka’s health going into the playoffs. Just like Kobe and LeBron before him, Luke headed to Europe to get special medical treatment for his hamstring. Reaves has an oblique strain that will sideline him for at least the first round, while it sounds like Luka might be able to come back sooner. How heavy of an offensive load can LeBron carry at age 41?
Houston is a team that had high expectations going into this season. They finished second in the West last year, though last year was such a log-jam after OKC ran away with the conference that the 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies only finished four games back of the Rockets. Though they lost in seven to Golden State in the first round, we chalked it up as simply a matter of experience. Teams usually have to take their lumps in the playoffs for at least a year, and Houston will be back, we said. Over the summer they took a big swing by dealing Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green for Kevin Durant. The main reason why they lost to Golden State was that they lacked a closer, a guy that you wanted with the ball in his hands in a close game down the stretch. Even at age 37, KD was still on that short list.
But then things went sideways. First, Houston lost veteran point guard Fred VanVleet for the season with an ACL. This put pressure on Amen Thompson (defensive wunderkind but limited offensive game, who you’d be comfortable leaving open in the corner) and Reed Sheppard (diminutive sharpshooter who averaged less than 13 minutes per game last year as a rookie despite being drafted 3rd overall) to handle the ball. This resulted in some of the tallest lineups we’ve seen in quite some time, for instance; Thompson (6′ 7″), Smith (6′ 11″), Durant (6′ 11″), Sengun (6′ 11″), and Adams (6′ 11″). As you might imagine, this team led the league in offensive and total rebounding, and they were in the mix with Denver and San Antonio for second best in the West.
Then, at the end of January, they lost center Steven Adams for the remainder of the season with an ankle injury. After that, their winning percentage slipped along with their rebounding numbers. At the All-Star break, a Twitter burner account allegedly belonging to KD was publicized, along with the disparaging things this account user had said about various figures, basketball and otherwise. In the post-Epstein era, it was christened “the KD Files”. Despite Durant being one of the greatest players of the 21st century, he has left a trail of disgruntled locker rooms in his wake. It’s hard not to see the current iteration of the Rockets as the latest example of this. On March 25th, the Rockets were in Minnesota to play the Timberwolves. Houston rallied from nine down in the final five minutes, and Alpren Sengun (one of my favorite players, but much like Jokic, his athleticism is lacking) made probably the greatest defensive play of his short career.
The Wolves had a fast break opportunity to win the game at the buzzer, and Sengun hustled back on defense, jumped maybe the highest he has in his entire life to meet Julius Randle at the rim, forcing overtime. He ate the floor and came up with a bloody lip. An incredible highlight that was met with a noticeable lack of exuberance from his teammates. In overtime, Houston jumped out to a thirteen point lead with three minutes remaining, and proceeded to blow it in the largest overtime collapse in NBA history. That felt like a microcosm of the entire season for Houston. We’ve seen Thompson, Sheppard, Durant, and Sengun all share ball-handling duties. Given the surprising play of Phoenix, especially Dillon Brooks, I wonder if Houston given the opportunity would chose to pass on trading for Durant.
Verdict: Houston has found a groove going into the playoffs, posting the third-best offense of the past two weeks. Winners of 8 of their last 10 games, including blowout victories over playoff participants New York and Phoenix. Houston should be able to dispatch the Lakers fairly quickly by sticking defensive wizard Amen Thompson on LeBron, and LA is such a top-heavy team that I don’t think anyone else will do much damage. If the Lakers find themselves down 2-0 or 3-1, will Luka even bother to come back if he’s not 100% healthy? This would be a shame if I didn’t hate Luka and the Lakers. I’ll say Rockets in five, assuming Luka doesn’t come back, but I probably would pick the Lakers if they were healthy.
The Eastern Conference
(#1) Detroit Pistons vs. (#8) Orlando Magic
The Pistons have had a dream season, winning maybe 60 games and the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed. Cade Cunningham, who took a big leap last year and made All-NBA Third Team and the All-Star Game, had a First Team type of season, which would have made him the first Piston to crack First Team since… Isiah Thomas in 1986! Those early 2000s teams that won 50+ games from 2001-02 to 2007-07, including the legendary 2004 Finals upset of the Laker never had a First Teamer. Cunningham just barely made it over the 65 game threshold that is now required for awards after he has suffered a collapsed lung. He missed about three weeks, but Detroit managed to stay afloat without him thanks to the surprising emergence of Daniss Jenkins, a little-known reserve who shouldered playmaking and scoring responsibilities to the tune of 19 points and 8 assists per game 45/43/92 shooting efficiency in the 10 games Cade missed. What a testament to the depth of the league. Cade looks like his usual 25/5/10 MVP-ish level self, but working him back into the rotation with only two regular season games since his injury could be tricky.
The Pistons dodged a bullet when the Hornets were shockingly disemboweled by the Orlando Magic. The Pistons have the best defense in the league, and the Magic offense is anemic. The only thing stopping me from picking a Detroit sweep is their relative lack of playoff experience. God, I wish this series was Pistons vs Hornets instead.
Verdict: Pistons in five
(#2) Boston Celtics vs. (#7) Philadelphia 76ers
As discussed above with Mazzula, most people expected the Celtics to have a gap year without Jayson Tatum. Instead, they are the favorites to emerge from the East. Their revamped roster was made possible by role players stepping up and cast-offs from other teams playing better than maybe anyone expected. Derrick White is the best shot-blocking guard in the league, and will probably make All-Defense. West Linn and Oregon legend Payton Pritchard, who I once saw eating sushi in downtown Lake Oswego, can shoot the cover at the ball and can finish at the cup as well despite his diminutive size. Queta is a MIP contender. Baylor Schierman has emerged. Gonzalez is a tenacious defender for a rookie. Jaylen Brown is a first team All-NBA candidate for how he carried the Celtics for the majority of the season, and Tatum looks better than anyone expected for a guy who tore his Achilles less than a year ago.
Philadelphia is a strange team between eras. Joel Embiid’s years of injuries have severely debilitated him, and he’s a shell of his former MVP self. The Paul George signing was a mistake at that number, though he shows flashes of what he once was. That’s about half their payroll right there, but once Philly can get those contracts off their books, the future is bright. Tyrese Maxey was an All-Star this year, and has poured in 28 points on a league-leading 38 minutes per game. He and rookie VJ Edgecombe make up one of the most exciting young backcourts in the league.
But this matchup is what we call in the biz a “hydrogen bomb vs coughing baby.” The Celtics are the hydrogen bomb, and the Sixers without Embiid are the coughing baby. Maxey will probably have an outstanding series – he could average 35, and the Sixers could still get swept.
Verdict: Celtics in five.
(#3) New York Knicks vs. (#6) Atlanta Hawks
The Knicks are a strange team. They’ve invested an enormous amount of capital, both cash and draft picks, into their starting five. New York ranks second in the league in terms of active salary, $209 million (Cleveland is first). Trading for Mikal Bridges cost five first-round picks. Karl-Anthony Towns cost Donte Divincenzo, Julius Randle, and a first-round pick. Towns makes $50 million per year, OG Anunoby $40 million, Brunson makes $35 million, Bridges makes $25 million, and Josh Hart makes $20 million. More than 80% of their salary cap is devoted to that starting five, partially a product of this feast-or-famine salary cap that has all but killed the NBA’s middle class of players. The Knicks have their first round pick this year, but they didn’t last year and they won’t for the rest of the decade. Yet that starting five actually has a negative net rating, meaning they get outscored by their opponents on a per-100 possessions basis.
The Knicks’ best lineup is actually the one that sees their sixth man, guard Miles “Deuce” McBride with Anunoby on the bench.
I was lucky enough to be in New York for a few days during the Knicks’ appearance in the Conference Finals last summer, their first since 1999-2000. There was something in the air, for sure. The city had Knicks fever. You could feel it. But once they fell to the Pacers in six, they fired Head Coach Tom Thibodeau after five years. Thibodeau was notorious for playing his starters long minutes – last season, all of the Knicks’ starters averaged more than 35 minutes per game. The Knicks brought in Mike Brown to coach instead, formerly of the Sacramento Kings. Brown was Coach of the Year in 2023 after installing the Warriors’ movement-heavy offensive system and leading the Kings to their first playoff appearance in 17 years, the longest drought in NBA history. New York has held steady all year as the third-best team in the East behind Detroit and Boston, 5th best in the league.
Atlanta spent years assembling a team of long, athletic, switchable wings to surround the diminutive Trae Young, a gifted scorer and playmaker but a major defensive liability. That team centered around Young was a perennial play-in squad (they’ve appeared in the past four), consistently mediocre. Much like Atlanta’s NFL franchise, every year some of us bought into the hype and potential and then were disappointed. This year I was sure that the addition of Kristaps Porzingis would make a difference. Tingis Pingus played a grand total of 17 games for Atlanta before being shipped off to Golden State in return for Jonathan Kuminga, ending the lengthy Kuminga saga in The Bay. But after playing much of the year without Young (who played the first five games, then another five in December), and liking what they saw (largely because of the progression of the aforementioned Daniels, Alexander-Walker, and Johnson), they decided to ship Young out for the veteran CJ McCollum. Since the All-Star break, the Hawks have the 4th best net rating and have lost just three times. Just imagine if Zaccharie Risacher, the #1 overall pick in 2024, was actually good. This Hawks team won more games than any team of the Trae Young era, and has a defense that is actually good. That, combined with a proven closer in McCollum (all Blazers fans remember his sensational Game 7 in Denver in 2019), makes the Hawks a team that shouldn’t be taken lightly in the playoffs.
Verdict: This will be an entertaining, competitive series. The Knicks could have drawn Toronto, who they have beaten a whopping 13 time in a row, if they had fielded their starters in the final game of the regular season. Instead, they draw arguably the hottest team in the league. New York took two of three in the regular season, but they will have their hands full. The Hawks have the #1 defense of the past two weeks, and the reigning DPOY Dyson Daniels and others will put a lot of pressure on Jalen Brunson to get the ball out of his hands. McCollum is a proven playoff closer, and while he’s nowhere in the vicinity of All-NBA Jalen Brunson, he could in theory to go toe to toe with Brunson down the stretch of a close game. To refer back to the weak link concept, this series could come down to whether or not Josh Hart can hit the open threes he’s given. Plus, you can’t forget about the recent playoff history between these two teams, even if object of ire Trae Young is now on another team. The Knicks should pull this out because of their superior bucket-getters and their experience, but it could very well go the distance. Knicks in 6.
(#4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (#5) Toronto Raptors
Every year since the Cavs made the blockbuster trade of acquiring All-NBA guard Donovan Mitchell from Utah, they have won nearly 50 games, but lost in either the first or second round of the playoffs. Two seasons ago, after losing to the Celtics, they fired head coach JB Bickerstaff. Last year, they won 61 games and were the #1 seed in the East before losing in shocking fashion to the magical Haliburton Indiana Pacers. This year at the trade deadline, they sent out the younger, diminutive Darius Garland for James Harden. Now if you know anything about Harden, you know that he’s a well-documented playoff choker. So this was an interesting move for a team that has struggled to get over the hump. Especially considering how Harden and Mitchell are both ball-dominant scoring guards. It felt like a bit of a panic trade, and there’s a lot of pressure on Cleveland. Who gets the ball in the last five minutes of a close game?
Toronto is a team I have few thoughts about. They traded for Brandon Ingram, a guy who I considered to be mostly a “good stats bad team” player who could not be the #1 option on a winning team. He’s proved me wrong, and the Raptors are #5 in defensive rating. But as someone who watches a lot of basketball, I haven’t watched a second of Raptors hoops all season, and can’t think of any Raptors moments from this year. They’re just totally off the radar for me, and when I look at their contracts and see that Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl are all making in the neighborhood of $20 to $30 million annually, I think “what for?”
Verdict: Gone are the days of LeBronto, but this is still an intriguing matchup. The Cavs have offensive firepower in Mitchell and Harden, and the Raptors have lanky wings like Barnes and Murray-Boyles to defend them. The Cavs are the better team, have more playoff experience, and are favored, but Toronto took all three of the regular season matchups (granted, they were all before Thanksgiving). Over the past two weeks, Toronto was #7 in Net Rating (#10 offense, #4 defense) while Cleveland was just #13 (#12 offense, #20 defense). But the Cavs might have the most pressure on them of any time in the postseason, especially after making the Harden trade. If they lose this series, anyone could be traded and anyone could be fired in Cleveland. A major shakeup could be in the cards – could this be the Giannis trade suitor? But they should be able to take care of this mid Raptors team. Cavs in 6.
Ultimately, I would be shocked if OKC doesn’t make the Finals. They’ll have the luxury of playing the Rockets in the second round, whereas the other side of the bracket will most likely be San Antonio and Denver in a matchup for the ages. Whoever emerges from that clash of titans (I would lean Denver just because of their playoff experience – Denver also took three of the four regular season matchups) will be bruised and bloody, and OKC will be rested and with homecourt advantage.
In the East, I’m prepared for anything. The Celtics are the favorites and have the pedigree, plus Tatum looks like his old self. Detroit is the #1 seed but they’re light on playoff experience – although they gave the Knicks a real series last season. Could the Hawks be last year’s Pacers?
The NBA Playoffs is one of my favorite times of year. Every night for almost two months we get exciting, high stakes games. Refs swallow their whistles and players preserve through injuries that would sideline them in the regular season. The legacies of players evolve as a new chapter is written. The drama arguably exceeds even the best written fiction. I have to decide how early is too early to wake up in the morning to catch the games. Enjoy! I may be posting some shorter, off-the-cuff reactions either here, on my Substack, or both.
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