NBA Finals Preview: Spurs vs. Knicks

I’ll be the first to admit that after OKC’s decisive Game 5 victory, I conceived a blog post titled “The NBA Finals is a Battle for the Soul of America.” In it I was going to use the Thunder vs. Knicks matchup as an analogy for the two sides of the United States.

The Thunder would be representing much of what is wrong with America from theft and conquest (as the Thunder were stolen from Seattle) to the breakdown of institutional norms (flopping and foul-baiting). Not to mention the fact that before every home game, a priest leads the entire arena in a prayer¹ (Christian nationalism, much?)

Whereas the Knicks would stand for what is worth fighting for in America. I had the phrase “Jalen Brunson, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you” in my notes. Brunson does represent the trope of the American underdog. Not only was he a second-round pick, but nobody should be able to score the way he does, at his size, as consistently. Brunson is part of the Nova Knicks – though his freshman year roommate Donte DiVincenzo was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves along with Julius Randle for Karl-Anthony Towns in October 2024 – along with Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges. Three college teammates playing together with a chance to win the championship is right out of a sports movie.

Plus, New York is the Mecca of basketball, and the whole city is united in their rabid love for the Knicks (as opposed to other sports where the city is more evenly split – sorry, Nets). Social media is awash in videos of insane Knick fans taking to the streets to express their joy. Part of the reason for such an outpouring is how the Knicks have suffered over the past decades.

But then what happened? San Antonio went back home and won Game 6 decisively. Victor Wembanyama set the tone early by doing things that – and I sound like a broken record – shouldn’t be possible at his size.

Wemby, after looking tired and indecisive in Game 5, arrived refreshed in a thobe (not a Shaolin monk robe, as some claimed) to Game 6 and the Spurs pulled away so thoroughly that the game was all but over by the end of the third.

For the Thunder, Shai struggled, scoring just 15 points. But I didn’t think the Spurs had much of a shot going back to Oklahoma City for Game 7. Based on decades of history, the idea that a team needs to take their lumps in the playoffs for at least a year before they’re ready to win the title is downright dogma. Although the Spurs had been proving us wrong all season, I didn’t think they could do it yet again.

Game 7 resembled Game 1 in the sense that it was thrilling from the opening tip to the final buzzer. Games 2-6 had little drama down the stretch. I rewatched Game 7 in its entirety last night, and I’ll share some of my notes.

• Do the Knicks have a Hartenstein? Can Mitchell Robinson play that role for them and physically wear Wemby down?
• The Spurs are like if ’07 LeBron had a good team. It really helped the Spurs that they got to pick #1 (Wembanyama), #4 (Castle), and #2 (Harper) overall in successive drafts. In fact, the Spurs got so lucky in that department that the new lottery rules (which I will no doubt go into in more depth once we hit the offseason) prevent teams from picking in the top five three consecutive years. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s first round picks after LeBron were Luke Jackson (#10 overall in 2004, only played 73 games and started 3 in four NBA seasons), Shannon Brown (#25 overall in 2006, played 38 games for the Cavs). They traded their 2005 first (#13 overall) for Wesley Person. Basically, the Cavs became instantly decent with the addition of LeBron, whereas the Spurs were bad enough for Wemby’s first two years (last year he only played 46 games because of the blood clot thing) to get lucky in the lottery.

Game 7 was a three point contest going into the 4th quarter. The final period is where the youthful Spurs – the youngest starting lineup in the history of the Conference Finals – should wither in the face of the MVP and defending champions. Instead, they rose to the occasion by shooting 61% from the field in those dozen minutes, including 6/10 from three.

Dylan Harper had another moment usually reserved for savvy vets when he snagged a big offensive that lead to a corner three. Fox and Wembanyama both did their best Damian Lillard impressions with stepback threes. But the most dramatic play of the game came from an unlikely source. Luke Kornet checked in for Wembanyama with 6:48 left to play when the latter picked up his fifth foul. Immediately a turnover led to a runout for Hartenstein, and it looked like a sure dunk until Kornet channeled his inner Game 7 LeBron and pinned it against the backboard. That key play resulted in a San Antonio bucket for a four-point swing, and Wembanyama checked back in at the next dead ball. Kornet played the most impactful 59 seconds of his career.

Harper crashed the offensive glass again to get a putback to push the Spurs lead to 11 with 4:26 left. Then he hit a ridiculous three that 20 year olds should not be making in the waning minutes of Game 7 of the Conference Finals on the road. OKC’s Cason Wallace hit a pair of threes to cut the lead to 6 with two minutes left. But after getting a turnover, SGA airballed a three, and then on the other side of the floor no Thunder (Thunderer?) boxed out Castle and he cleaned up an easy offensive rebound for two. And that was basically the game. The Thunder had a chance to win it, but just couldn’t get any good looks.

Wembanyama has never been one to hide his emotions, as he was in tears after the States beat France in the 2024 Gold Medal Game. He only had one field goal in the 4th quarter, but he kept himself in rhythm with free throws.

Meanwhile, for the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his best game of the series, with 35 points and 9 assists. He had a big second quarter, scoring 13 points on 6/7 shooting and pushing the Thunder to a brief lead. He played really well when he wasn’t flopping. On one emblematic play, he flopped, but when the Thunder got the offensive rebound, he floated to the rim for a dunk. Which is part of what makes the SGA experience so frustrating. If he would just cut the shit and hoop, people wouldn’t have such a negative opinion of him. Unfortunately, nobody else for OKC really showed up. Wallace splashed 4 threes in the 4th, and finished with 17 as the Thunder’s second leading scorer. Down six with 90 seconds left, SGA airballed a three. Another opportunity, he drove into the paint but was deterred by Wembanyama. He just didn’t have any gas left in the tank, scoring just 4 points in the 4th. He played the first 14 minutes, and only sat for five minutes the entire game.

Chet Holmgren will justifiably be the target of everyone’s ire, as he scored a measly 4 points on 2 shot attempts, both of which came in the first quarter. That’s the second-fewest points in a Game 7 by an All-NBA player that season in at least the last 50 years (poor Jason Kidd put up a goose egg in Game 7 of the 2004 Eastern Conference Semis). It was so bad that, after he snagged a rebound in the fourth quarter, Mike Tirico commentated “Holmgren rebound, maybe that’ll get him going.” Chet’s 5 year, $239,250,000 extension (that’s about $48 million per year, in case you couldn’t be bothered to crunch the numbers) kicks in next year, to add insult to injury. Chet and many first round picks for Giannis, anyone?

But let’s wipe our hands of the Thunder stink and look forward to what might be the best Finals in quite some time. These two teams stand in stark contrast to each other. The trajectory of the Knicks team is more familiar. They have made the playoffs every year since they signed Brunson, and each of the past three years they’ve made it one round further. That sort of incremental progress is common. What’s uncommon is what the Spurs have done, from missing the playoffs last season to being the favorites to win the Finals currently. Roster construction is another contrast. The only player in the Knicks rotation that they drafted is backup center Mitchell Robinson. The Spurs got lucky in the lottery three years in a row, and drafted Wembanyama #1 in 2023, Castle #4 in 2024, and Harper #2 in 2025. Homegrown players constitute the core of their team.

On paper, the Knicks and the Spurs are a scintillating matchup. They met three times in the regular season. The first was the NBA Cup Championship, a 124-113 Knicks win in which they dominated in the paint. They played again on New Year’s Eve, a 134-132 Spurs win thanks to Champagnie’s franchise-record 11 threes. Wembanyama was sensational in his Madison Square Garden debut, notching 31 points on 10 for 12 shooting and 13 rebounds in just 24 minutes of action. Finally, the Knicks blew the Spurs out 114-89 on March 2nd to snap San Antonio’s 11 game win streak. Wembanyama played well, but the Spurs turned it over 22 times for 24 New York points and were outrebounded by a margin of 13. But given the extent to which playoff basketball is a different animal in terms of intensity, one shouldn’t put too much stock in regular season results (although the Spurs were the only team to give OKC trouble in the regular season, and look how that turned out).

In terms of individual player matchups, we have a delicious menu to survey. Perhaps the principal question: who can possibly hope to contain Victor Wembanyama. All-Defense wing OG Anunoby will probably spend the most time guarding Wembanyama. Despite being nine inches shorter, OG weighs more, and will be able to use his superior strength to push Wembanyama off his spot.

Big man Karl-Anthony Towns, while not known for his defense, has stepped it up in the postseason, and will be matched with Wembanyama as well. Towns was lauded for his efforts defending Wembanyama in their March matchup.

Victor Wembanyama

On offense, Towns will draw Wembanyama out of the paint as a stretch five and thus help create offense for New York even if he doesn’t touch the ball. Towns’ assist numbers have nearly doubled in the playoffs as well – though it will be hard to play-make out of the post against Wembanyama’s 10 foot standing reach.

For the Knicks, Stephon Castle will get the Brunson assignment. Castle did a great job on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as SGA’s PTS/75 went from 33.5 in the regular season to 21.2 against Castle, on just 55.9 TS% compared to his whopping 66.5% regular season mark. When I looked at the regular season matchup data for Brunson against Castle, I was shocked to see that Castle did not allow a single bucket to Brunson in their 29 regular season possessions. Compare to Castle’s backcourt mate De’Aaron Fox, who allowed 33.8 PTS/75 to Brunson on a sizzling 68.2 TS%.

That’s about all I’ve got to say. It should be a thrilling Finals. I think the Spurs are favored a little too heavily, and this will be a long, competitive series. The Spurs are the better team, but the Knicks have eviscerated their competition on a historic level, and have fresher legs. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but my prediction is Spurs in 7, with Wembanyama capping off this incredible run with the Finals MVP.

Regardless of who wins, the legend of Victor Wembanyama continues to grow. He’s had a bevy of iconic moments in these playoffs already. His return from concussion in the first round against Portland (I can’t believe I thought the Blazers had a chance in that series when it was 1-1 headed back to Portland with Wembanyama out for an unspecified number of games). 12 blocks in Game 1 against Minnesota – most in a playoff game, ever. Being ejected from Game 4 after elbowing Naz Reid in the throat. 41 and 24 in the double OT Game 1 win in OKC, including the absurd Steph-range three. It feels like he took the “best player in the world” belt from SGA by knocking him out of the playoffs. And now he’s in the NBA Finals. The only players to make All-NBA 1st Team and the Finals by age 22? Wembanyama, LeBron James, and Max Zaslofsky (back in the day when the league was dominated by Jewish guys from Brooklyn who shot 33% from the field). It does feel like Wemby is truly on that LeBron-type of trajectory. Remember, this is just his first playoff run. I’m lucky to be alive for it. I’ll tell my grandkids one day about watching Wembanyama, although by then, pro sports as we know them might have been replaced with some sort of Running Man-style televised bloodsport funded by Saudi oil money.

1. Apparently, it’s been happening ever since the New Orleans Hornets’ temporary relocation to OKC in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. First of all, the Paycom Center is owned by the City of Oklahoma City (a phrase that just rolls off the tongue), and it would seem to me like a potential violation of church and state (although I guess that’s gone out the window now that classrooms are displaying the 10 Commandments) to have such a brazen display of religion in a public space. And I’m guessing the Thunder have never had a rabbi, imam, or any other non-Christian religious leader lead the invocation. ↩︎